Non-Paternity (no, this is not a spam post)
Just a quick shout-out to (other) Richard over at the Naturally Selected blog, who in turn points at a Faculty of 1000 review of a very interesting article by Michael Gilding, entitled “Rampant Misattributed Paternity: The Creation of an Urban Myth”. You can download the article, for free, from the journal website, right here.
While the article starts off sounding like a defence of Gilding and colleagues’ involvement (and occasional lambasting by interested stakeholders) in a 2005 paternity story involving an Australian politician, it rapidly evolves into an interesting, if rather anecdotal, deconstruction of the myths surrounding the incidence of non-paternity, at least in some sectors of “Western” society. It seems, perhaps unsurprisingly, that even the best estimates in the scientific literature appear to be pretty soft, and that most of what is popularly “known” is blatantly wrong. Popular estimates of 10-30% are not supported by scientific evidence, which suggests a rate closer to 1-3%, at least in the most believable studies.
I can recall being told during my PhD that “about five percent of families” in some of our disease studies had a case of non-paternity; given an average family size of, say, 2.2 children, that’s about 2.5% overall. That was a totally empirical (and thus non-rigorous) estimate, but seems “about right”.
Why is this important? Well, imagine how confounding a non-paternity rate of ten, or twenty, or thirty percent would be in a genetic association or (shudder!) linkage study, looking for variants conferring risk to a particular phenotype (that’s “disease” or “disorder” to medically-inclined readers). Even rates on the order of one percent can make things tricky. But – in this age of genome-wide, microarray-based association studies – questions of paternity are now trivial to resolve, and individuals manifesting obvious non-inheritance (which we can easily find with just a handful of polymorphic markers on a typical microarray containing hundreds of thousands) can be filtered from the final data set.
So is the presence of occasional non-paternity in genetic studies a big deal, or not? Well, it’s easy to detect, to be sure, but can still be a real problem in very small studies (such as those using genetic data to assess drug response in an early-phase clinical trial, where subject numbers may be quite limited). Is knowing the “true” population rate important? I’d argue that it probably isn’t. But it seems to me to be a moot point, since the best way to discover it would be via a very large, familial study, using population-based subjects – in other words, not selected as being part of a particular disease cohort. And I don’t buy for a second that (a) any funding agency is likely to pay for such a study, and (b) any Research Ethics Board would ever be likely to approve it anyway.
Still, Gilding’s article is an interesting read, and it’s nice to see an article noticed, reviewed, and yes, even blogged (a couple of times) even though it’s published in a journal that isn’t indexed in PubMed.






